Extremely Warm Sea Surface Temperatures Increases Confidence for an Active Hurricane Season
Image Caption: NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Sea Surface Temperature product shows exceedingly warm temperatures throughout the Gulf of Mexico, a key ingredient that could help fuel an active hurricane season this year.
Since June 2023, NASA’s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Sea Surface Temperature product has observed extremely warm Gulf of Mexico water temperatures ranging between 27-33 degrees Celsius, which is equivalent to upper 80’s to lower 90’s degrees Fahrenheit.
Dr. Patrick Duran, Lead Tropical Cyclone Research Scientist for NASA SPoRT and the Deputy Applications Lead for NASA’s TROPICS mission says persistent high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is the main driver causing extremely warm Gulf water temperatures.
“High pressure suppresses cloud cover, leading to more sunshine which warms the Gulf waters,” says Duran.
High pressure systems are also known to weaken surface winds, which limits vertical mixing of surface water with cooler water below, also helping to keep sea surface temperatures warm.
Duran states warm Gulf waters is a key ingredient that helps hurricanes maintain or rapidly intensify while approaching landfall.
In fact, it could help hurricanes to maintain their strength regardless of the recently declared El Nino pattern in effect for Summer 2023, which is known to hinder hurricane formation and intensification in the Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic, and Caribbean due to an increase in vertical wind shear.
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Responsible Official: Dr. Andrew Molthan (andrew.molthan@nasa.gov)
Page Curator: Paul Meyer (paul.meyer@nasa.gov)
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